Complete decision ledger
Forecasts and executable prices are frozen at decision time
No AI verdicts yetThe ledger populates only after a real AI research scan.
SYSTEM PLAYBOOK
How Prediction Lab decides.
The AI does not bet freely. Every position must pass technical filters, independent research and a final mathematical edge test.
01Mathematical shortlist
Load active Polymarket markets, then reject weak liquidity, wide spreads, extreme prices, duplicate positions and games that have started.
02AI web research
Read the exact resolution rules, search current primary sources and estimate YES probability independently from the market.
03Edge calculation
YES edge = AI probability − executable YES price. NO edge = (1 − AI probability) − executable NO price.
04Paper entry & settlement
Open a $200 paper position only when edge is at least 6%. When the market resolves, calculate realized P&L and preserve the full audit trail.
Current entry rules
- Minimum liquidity $250,000
- Maximum spread 5 points
- Price range 3%–97%
- Minimum edge 6 points
- Paper stake $200
- Sports safety margin 30 minutes before start
- Maximum AI research batch 6 markets
What each verdict means
- ENTER YES — YES passed the edge threshold
- ENTER NO — NO passed the edge threshold
- WATCH — researched, but edge is insufficient
- SKIP — ambiguous, stale or poorly sourced
- VOID — position invalidated without P&L
Important: edge is an estimate, not guaranteed profit. The lab remains paper-only until enough positions resolve to evaluate calibration, Brier score and realized returns.